Resolution rules · Midterms 2026
Every question on the Midterms 2026 board resolves under the rules on this page. They were written before the board opened and before anyone committed. Changes are appended to the log at the bottom, never made silently.
Race outcomes resolve on the Associated Press race call. A question about who wins a race, which party controls a chamber, or how many seats a party holds resolves when the AP has called every race the question depends on.
If a race call is disputed, withdrawn, or contradicted by a later official result, the state’s certified result governs and the question is re-resolved to match. Certification is final.
A question locks at the close of polls in the state it is about. After the lock, no new commits and no updates are accepted on that question.
Questions about chamber control, national seat counts, or anything spanning more than one state lock when the first polls close anywhere in the country on Election Day. Where a question carries its own lock rule in its text, the question’s text governs.
Lock rules are stated as events, not clock times, so that a court-ordered extension of polling hours in a state extends that state’s lock with it.
A question pinned to a Kalshi or Polymarket market adopts that market’s settlement as its resolution, on the market’s timetable. The market’s settlement rules are linked from the question and form part of these rules by reference.
If the pinned market is voided, cancelled, or settles as anything other than a yes-or-no outcome, the question is voided: it is removed from scoring for everyone, with no points gained or lost.
Predictant does not overrule a market’s settlement, even where an AP call would differ. The pinned market’s rules were visible at commit time, and they are the rules that apply.
A question stays open until the AP calls it or the state certifies it, whichever comes first. Nothing is scored while a question is open: no provisional points, no projected standings.
A recount, a runoff, or a legal challenge keeps the question open until it resolves. A race decided by a runoff resolves on the runoff result. A question that still cannot resolve once every state has certified is voided rather than guessed.
Any member may dispute a resolution by emailing rules@predictant.com within 72 hours of the resolution being posted. A dispute must name the question and the source that contradicts the resolution.
Decisions are published on the board with the reasoning. A decision that changes a resolution triggers a rescore for everyone on that question. Disputes about the rules themselves are welcome, but the rules do not change for a question that has already locked.
Every commit is scored with the Brier rule: the squared distance between the probability committed and the outcome. Scores are time-weighted over the forecast path — a probability that stood for three weeks counts for more than one that stood for an hour — and each commit is measured relative to the market price recorded at the moment it was made.
Matching the market earns nothing. Beating it earns Predictant Points, which rank the board. The calibration of the whole path feeds the Predictant Score on your profile.
There are no prizes on the Midterms 2026 board. No money is staked and none is paid out. The only thing at stake is a record with your name on it.
Predictant takes no position on any race, any candidate, any party, or any pollster. The platform keeps the record and applies these rules the same way to every column.
Revisions are added here with a date. Earlier versions stay readable. A rule never changes for a question that has already locked.
Predictant keeps the record; it never makes the call.